Seasoned spectators and followers of Vasaloppet know that the first Sunday in March seems to bring a weather curse. Year after year, the week leading up to the race offers stable weather, only for sudden snowfall or drastic changes to occur the night before the start. And this year, the risk is once again present.

Is There a Weather Curse Over Vasaloppet?

With the race approaching this Sunday, the weather in Sälen and Mora appears relatively stable.

“When it comes to temperature and wind strength, we are fairly confident in our forecast up until Sunday,” says the on-duty meteorologist at SMHI (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute).

However, in the past decade, precipitation has been the greatest weather-related concern for skiers and support teams.

“The uncertainties we talk about usually involve cloud cover and precipitation—whether a snow shower might pass through, for example.”

Water on the Marshes Already

Right now, according to Langd.se, skiers are reporting standing water on the marshes after Sälen, causing issues for participants.

Last year, the race began under extremely wet conditions. Vasaloppet organizers had to set up pumps to remove water from the start area and nearby parking lots.

Vasaloppet Curse in 2021 Turned into Triumph for Gjerdalen

One of the most extreme examples occurred in 2021. The week leading up to the race had seen stable, predictable weather, with temperatures fluctuating around freezing. However, a small snowstorm swept into western Dalarna late at night before the start. Combined with the wind, it created a thin layer of fresh snow over the course, which was later blown into the classic ski tracks. As a result, all elite skiers chose to ski outside the tracks.

The icy conditions outside the tracks contributed to a record-breaking time. Tord Asle Gjerdalen won in 3:28:18.4, shattering Jörgen Brink’s previous record by over ten minutes.

Even back then, the notion of a weather curse surrounding Vasaloppet was hard to ignore.

Also Read: Vasaloppet Winter Week 2025: Program, facts, and statistics

What About the Weather This Sunday?

Leading up to race day, temperatures in Berga By are expected to fluctuate between a few degrees above and below freezing. The exception is Saturday night when temperatures may drop as low as -15°C.

In Mora, however, SMHI forecasts much warmer weather, with subzero temperatures not expected until Friday. While artificial snow holds up better than natural snow, such warm conditions could make it difficult for the snow to bind properly. If temperatures drop on Saturday night, the race may start with icy tracks but soften considerably towards Mora.

SMHI still warns that a repeat of 2021 is possible.

“We have some indications of snowfall near Idre on Sunday. If it shifts southeast, it could mean snowfall during Vasaloppet itself,” reports the on-duty meteorologist at SMHI.

What do you think? Is there a weather curse over Vasaloppet?

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