The Tour de Ski returns this Sunday, December 28, with six demanding stages across eight days in Italy, setting the tone for the heart of the Olympic winter. Who are the favorites?

With Toblach hosting the opening Tour de Ski races and the iconic Alpe Cermis climb once again deciding the overall titles on January 4 in Val di Fiemme, the world’s best cross-country skiers face one of the season’s toughest all-round challenges.

This year’s Tour carries extra weight. With the Milano-Cortina 2026 Olympic Games only weeks away, performances in Italy are closely watched by national teams as final selection decisions approach.

Women: Diggins is the benchmark, a wide-open fight behind

On the women’s side, Jessie Diggins starts as the clear favorite for the overall victory. The American leads the World Cup standings, is a two-time Tour de Ski winner, and has repeatedly proven her ability to handle the Tour’s mixed formats, from sprint to long-distance and climbing.

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Behind Diggins, the battle for the podium looks unusually open, especially with Therese Johaug absent. Several athletes appear capable of challenging across different terrains and formats.

Among the strongest contenders are Norway’s Heidi Weng and Astrid Øyre Slind. Weng continues to show steady progression and remains one of the most reliable climbers in the field. At the same time, Øyre Slind’s endurance and consistency make her a serious threat over multiple stages. From Sweden, former Tour de Ski winner Frida Karlsson and breakthrough skier Moa Ilar enter as major podium candidates, both having shown strong early-season form.

Several established names are missing from this year’s Tour. Sophia Laukli and Delphine Claudel are sidelined for extended periods, while Germany’s Victoria Carl is absent following a positive doping test earlier this year. Finland’s Kerttu Niskanen, a previous Tour podium finisher, has struggled to find top form so far this season.

Among the outsiders, Kristin Austgulen Fosnæs stands out after a consistent World Cup start, while young talents such as Gina del Rio and Italy’s Maria Gismondi add an element of unpredictability in a demanding stage race environment.

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Men: Klæbo leads, but pressure is building

On the men’s side, Johannes Høsflot Klæbo enters as the overall favorite. The Norwegian World Cup leader and defending Tour de Ski champion remains the most complete skier in the field, capable of winning sprints, surviving long classic distances, and limiting losses on the final climb.

Also Read – Cross-Country World Cup 2025/2026: Updated standings after Davos

However, Klæbo has shown occasional vulnerability this season, and several challengers are well-positioned to test him. Harald Østberg Amundsen, the 2024 Tour de Ski winner, remains a significant threat if he maintains consistency across all formats. Sweden’s Edvin Anger and France’s Hugo Lapalus have both taken clear steps forward this winter and are realistic candidates for the overall podium.

Notably absent is Austria’s Mika Vermeulen, last year’s runner-up, leaving a gap among the traditional Tour climbers.

Dark horses include Simen Hegstad Krüger, who has extra motivation after an uneven season start, and comeback skier Emil Iversen, whose form has steadily improved. Younger names such as Alvar Myhlback and Lars Heggen could also play disruptive roles, especially in individual stages.

Special competitions: Sprints and Climb bibs

The sprint competitions again favor established specialists. On the women’s side, Swedish sprinters lead the field, with Maja Dahlqvist standing out as the most complete sprint contender across both techniques. On the men’s side, Klæbo remains the dominant sprint favorite if healthy, though rivals such as Lucas Chanavat, Erik Valnes, Edvin Anger, and Ben Ogden are capable of challenging on the right day.

The climbing competition, introduced recently by FIS, adds another tactical dimension. Athletes like Heidi Weng and Nora Sanness on the women’s side, and Friedrich Moch, Simen Hegstad Krüger, Jules Lapierre, and Hugo Lapalus among the men, are expected to target mountain points throughout the distance stages.

Format and finale

The 2025/2026 Tour de Ski consists of six races: a freestyle sprint, a 10km classic individual start, a 5km freestyle heat race, a 20km classic pursuit, a classic sprint, and the decisive freestyle mass start up Alpe Cermis. The format once again demands versatility, recovery ability, and mental resilience.

As ever, the final climb in Val di Fiemme is expected to reshape the overall standings, ensuring that no Tour de Ski lead is safe until the very last meters.

With Olympic places, World Cup points, and prestige on the line, the 2025/2026 Tour de Ski promises several days of high-stakes racing and some of the most revealing performances of the winter season.

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