The Winter Olympics in Italy are approaching, and with them comes the question of who will dominate women’s cross-country skiing. The aim of this article is not to list favorites, but to support the analysis with relevant statistical data.

Many top skiers could be selected based on recent World Cup races or past successes, but such data can be misleading. Some athletes competed in their latest races straight out of heavy training blocks, while others did not compete at all.

However, most elite women did not hold back last season and faced two demanding season peaks, the Tour de Ski and the World Championships, which are extremely difficult to prepare for and recover from. The same will be true this season as well, although the Olympics are on an entirely different scale and will undoubtedly be prioritized by most athletes.

The goal of this statistical analysis is to compare how athletes managed last year’s Tour de Ski (TdS) and the subsequent World Championships in Trondheim 2025, the two major peaks of the previous season. Based on this comparison, we can focus on this year’s Tour de Ski results and expect that, as with last year’s World Championships, the Olympic results may unfold similarly.

Of course, preparation across two different seasons cannot be compared mechanically or treated as a certainty. Athletes are only human, and nothing can be predicted with 100 percent accuracy. Still, this comparison may indicate how athletes could theoretically prepare for the biggest sporting event of all.

Falling out of contention

Last year’s Tour de Ski winner and multiple medalist at the World Championships in Trondheim, Therese Johaug, dropped out of the statistics this season. Her priorities have changed, and instead of tuning her form for the Winter Olympics, she currently has much more pleasant concerns. Two weeks ago, she became a mother for the second time.

Also Read: Johaug has become a mother for the second time

Victoria Carl, a gold medalist from the team relay at the Beijing Olympics, has been sanctioned for doping and will not be allowed to compete.

Read More:Victoria Carl tests positive for Clenbuterol after taking prescribed medication

Distance skiers

Norwegian Astrid Øyre Slind finished second in last year’s Tour de Ski. At the World Championships, she won silver in the relay, but she was certainly hoping for individual success as well. Her best individual result was sixth place in the 10km classic. This year, however, she did not complete the stage race and appears to have learned from last season, skipping the final three stages to focus entirely on Olympic preparation. As one of the few Norwegian athletes, her Olympic nomination was virtually guaranteed.

American Jessie Diggins finished third in last year’s Tour de Ski, but the World Championships did not go her way. Yes, she won silver in the women’s team sprint alongside Julia Kern and claimed the overall World Cup title, but that was the extent of her medal haul. She is also planning to retire after this season, so that a potential Olympic medal would be a symbolic and beautiful final chapter to her successful career. The question remains whether she can optimally prepare for another season peak after this year’s Tour victory, as a similar plan failed last year.

Read More – Jessie Diggins: portrait of an American icon in her golden final chapter

Finn Kertu Niskanen finished fourth in last year’s Tour de Ski, and her best results at the World Championships were two unfortunate finishes just outside the podium, in the relay and the team sprint. This year, she learned from that experience and skipped the final two stages in Val di Fiemme to save energy for the winter’s primary goal. At the Beijing 2022 Olympics, she won silver in the 10km classic and bronze in the 30km freestyle. Along with Slind, she is among the oldest and most experienced athletes in the field.

Another Finn, Johanna Matintalo, also recorded strong results this season, winning the most recent World Cup race in Goms over 20km classic.

Also Read: Finnish star storms to 20km Mass Start victory at the World Cup in Goms

On the other hand, Norwegian Heidi Weng finished fifth overall in last year’s Tour de Ski, third this year, and won silver in the 50km freestyle at the World Championships in Trondheim.

Swede Frida Karlsson finished only 14th in last year’s Tour de Ski, but showed her strength in the 50km, finishing just behind Weng to take bronze. This year, she was not in ideal condition during the Tour. Before the final stage, she was far down the overall standings and decided to withdraw from the Tour just a few hours before the final climb stage.

Another Swede whose performance is on the rise is Moa Ilar. She finished 14th in last year’s Tour de Ski and placed in the top 20 at the World Championships. This year, she delivered an excellent eighth place overall in the Tour.

Linn Svahn finished 18th in last year’s Tour de Ski and skipped this year’s edition. She did not compete at the Beijing Olympics due to shoulder surgery and missed the World Championships in Trondheim last year because of health issues. Given her setbacks, she would certainly deserve an Olympic medal, but there are question marks surrounding her current form.

This year’s Tour, however, suited Austrian Teresa Stadlober perfectly. She finished second overall, after being only seventh in last year’s Tour and narrowly missing out with fourth place in the 10km classic at the World Championships.

Sprinters

We must not forget sprint specialists, who usually take part in the Tour de Ski only for selected sprint races and often do not complete the whole stage race.

One of them is Norwegian Kristine Stavås Skistad, who won silver in the sprint at the World Championships.

Other strong contenders who could challenge for medals in the sprint or team sprint include the powerful Swedes Maja Dahlqvist, Emma Ribom, and Johanna Hagström, as well as the Finns Jasmi Joensuu, the German Coletta Rydzek, and the Swiss Nadine Fähndrich.

Top favorites

So, who has the potential to collect the most medals at the Olympics? We have selected two Swedish athletes.

One is distance specialist Ebba Andersson, who won three gold medals at last year’s World Championships, two individual and one in the relay. She finished seventh in last year’s Tour de Ski and fourth this year.

Another major favorite is Jonna Sundling. She skipped last year’s Tour de Ski to fully focus on preparing for the World Championships, and the strategy worked perfectly. Originally a pure sprinter, she has developed into a versatile athlete who won three gold medals at the World Championships, sprint, relay, and team sprint, plus bronze in the skiathlon. Without a fall, she could have added another medal in the final 50km. Sundling has also consistently shown her ability to peak for major events, winning World Championship gold in the sprint and team sprint in both 2021 and 2023. Her Olympic record from Beijing 2022 speaks for itself: gold in the sprint, silver in the team sprint, and bronze in the relay.

Cross-country skiing schedule – Milano-Cortina 2026

• Feb 7: Women’s Skiathlon
• Feb 8: Men’s Skiathlon
• Feb 10: Classic Sprint, women & men
• Feb 12: 10 km Freestyle, women
• Feb 13: 10 km Freestyle, men
• Feb 14: Women’s Relay
• Feb 15: Men’s Relay
• Feb 18: Team Sprint, women & men
• Feb 21: 50 km Classic, men
• Feb 22: 50 km Classic, women

Complete program for the Winter Olympic Games can be found HERE

Also Read: Program for cross-country skiing at the Milano-Cortina 2026 Winter Olympics

Val di Fiemme, a classic Nordic skiing venue, promises thrilling racing on courses steeped in Olympic history. Fans around the World will have the chance to cheer on athletes across all distances, from explosive sprints to grueling marathons.

Are you interested in traditional cross-country skiing? Click HERE and read more about it.