Will Johannes Høsflot Klæbo race the World Cup final in Falun this weekend? 

Whether he does or doesn’t race in Falun can change who takes home the crystal trophy in both the sprint and distance World Cup, but in opposite ways: If Klæbo races in Falun, it could change the overall outcome of the distance World Cup. The sprint World Cup can only change if he doesn’t race in Falun. (If he doesn’t race, it could change the sprint World Cup.) 

Klæbo tested positive for Covid-19 following the World Cup in Lahti, Finland, on February 26 to 27, along with the rest of the Norwegian elite sprint team. Accordingly, Klæbo didn’t race the World Cup sprint in Drammen last week or the 50km in Holmenkollen on Sunday. 

When the Norwegian national team announced the team selection for the World Cup final in Falun, the roster did not include Klæbo. However, as the leader of the overall World Cup, Klæbo may choose to race regardless of team selection. He will decide in the next couple of days. 

Regardless, the overall World Cup is already determined. Klæbo has won it by a landslide. But the distance World Cup and the sprint World Cup titles could be up for grabs, depending on whether Klæbo decides to race in Falun. If he does race, it could change the distance cup, if he doesn’t race it could change the sprint cup. 

How can that be?  

The Sprint World Cup
Currently, Klæbo sits in first place overall with 562 points. Jouve is in second place with 467 points. Chanavat is in third place, with 363 points. 

If Klæbo doesn’t race in Falun, France’s Richard Jouve can snag the overall sprint World Cup. However, for that to happen Juove has to win the sprint on Friday and Klæbo not earn any World Cup points. In practice, that will only happen if Klæbo doesn’t enter the race.

Jouve is certainly on a roll: Last Thursday, he won the World Cup sprint in Drammen, Norway, bagging his first-ever World Cup podium. 

The Distance World Cup
In the distance World Cup, the situation is the opposite: The current ranking can only change if Klæbo races in Falun. Prior to the World Cup final, Iivo Niskanen of Finland has 467 points and Klæbo has 413. 

If Klæbo does race the 15km distance race on Saturday, and Niskanen is not among the top four, Klæbo will win the distance World Cup. 

The Overall World Cup
The Overall World Cup is the sum of the Sprint World Cup, the Distance World Cup, the Tour de Ski and the season opening Mini Tour in Ruka, Finland. 

However, the 2022 season was unique in that the Tour de Ski became extremely important for the Overall World Cup: 

First, both of the World Cups that were scheduled for January were cancelled due to the Covid pandemic. Then, the World Cup final in Tyumen, Russia, on March 18 to 20 was cancelled as a part of global sanctions placed on Russia and Belarus in response to the Russian invasion of the Ukraine on February 24. None of these World Cups were rescheduled or replaced.

Additionally, several of the racers opted to sit out Tour de Ski this season in order to prepare for the Beijing Olympics in February. 

Nevertheless, Klæbo won the Tour de Ski, and collected 400 points for that. He sits in first place with 1375 points. Bulshunov, who was second overall in Tour de Ski, is in second place with 878 points. Niskanen in third place has 718 points. 

The Women’s World Cup
Among the women, all the titles are locked down. 

Natalia Nepryaeva of Russia has won the overall World Cup. She sits in first place with 972 points, while Ebba Andersson from Sweden has 732 points. USA’s Jessie Diggins is third with 721 points. 

Therese Johaug has won the Distance World Cup. She is 177 points ahead of Swedish rival Frida Karlsson in second place. So, regardless who wins the 10-kilometer skate race in Falun, Johaug takes home the Distance World Cup trophy.  

The women’s overall sprint World Cup is already determined: even though one sprint race remains next weekend, there is no way that anyone can pass Maja Dahlqvist in the overall points standing in the FIS Sprint World Cup. 

The World Cup event in Falun on March 11 through 13 will be the last of the 2021-22 FIS Cross-Country World Cup season. The first day at the Falun World Cup features sprint races for both men and women, followed by 10km skate for women and 15km skate races on Saturday, and mixed relays on Sunday.